Mike Trout?!

This week, ESPN published a list of the Top 100 Prospects in baseball.

According to ESPN Insider, Keith Law, the honor of being #1 went to Angels OF prospect Mike Trout.

I really don't see it. No disrespect to Mr. Trout, who I gave an honorable mention to in my own list of top prospects last summer, but #1? I don't think so.

What is his ceiling? Are we looking at a Craig Biggio type player (in the outfield)? (Obviously, it is not lost on me that Biggio will almost certainly be a Hall-of-Famer someday... so I don't consider that an insult).

But looking at his stats: the Midwest League stats are very good. However, normally a #1 prospect in the game is going to hit for more power (only 6 HRs in 312 ABs). Then, he went to the California League (which even a casual follower of minor league baseball knows is a hitters paradise) and he managed 4 HRs in 196 ABs. Of course, he is very young and it is very common for young hitters to have to "grow into" their power potential... the proverbial turning of doubles into home runs. That again, I concede, absolutely could happen and why I don't mean for this to be an attack on Trout. He is, my nitpicking aside, absolutely a very good prospect.

But I will continue: Trout stole 56 bases in A ball last year. That is, again, very promising but stealing 56 bases in A ball at age 19 will often generally translate to 25-35 in the majors - even less if the player starts bulking up - perhaps less of a concern in this post-steriod(?) era?

So, again, what is his ceiling? What current or former major leaguer should I look to and see the future of Mike Trout? Will he become another Craig Biggio or Robin Yount? Or just a (healthier) version of Rocco Baldelli or Reggie Sanders? It seems to me we are looking at 20-20 potential... those are Curtis Granderson numbers - not Vlad Guerrero numbers. (I suppose if he goes 20-20 AND hits ~.330... maybe a Kirby Puckett-like career is a possibility?)

Let's bookmark this and check back in 20 years.

But just for the record - I am taking Bryce Harper as my 2011 preseason #1.