I am not a political scientist. I acknowledge that fact. Chris Matthews knows waaaaay more about politics than do I. However, I still can't get myself to agree with the Beltway wisdom about the meaning of last night's primary results.
For example, Andrea Mitchell was reporting on the (not yet called) defeat of Arlen Specter (she seemed almost broken up about it... what was up with that?) and saying he lost because the voters are "angry", "frustrated", "scared" and that there is just a tremendous anti-incumbent feeling in the country at the moment. Why do they not draw the obvious conclusion that voters in a Democratic primary want to vote a real Democrat? I supported Rep. Joe Sestak and am glad that Specter lost but I do not consider myself scared or particuarly angry. Frustrated? Yes, I will confirm that one. (I will be frustrated as long as Joe Lieberman is in the senate and chairs the Senate's Homeland Security Committee. That is bullshit!)
I do not consider that an indictment of my feelings towards Barack Obama (or Gov. Ed Rendell for that matter). Tellingly, Howard Fineman (an MSNBC political analyst) reported that he talked to his mother (a lifelong Democrat living in the Pittsburgh area), he asked her for whom she voted? Her answer was Joe Sestak because Arlen Specter had voted for the war in Iraq and the Bush tax cuts. YES!! Thank you, Mrs. Fineman! It's not because of disapproval of Barack Obama or the health care bill or any junk like that; it's that we want to vote for someone who is a TRUE Democrat rather than 80 year old guy who has served five terms and who switched parties only because he had no chance as a Republican.
To follow up on Mrs. Fineman's reasoning, I saw Republican wordsmith Frank Luntz on Hannity last night giving his analysis of the special election in the 12th district of Pennsylvania last night. He said:
Sean, what is happening is that Democrats have realized that to run with Barack Obama... is not going to get them elected even in an overwhelmingly Democratic state like Pennsylvania
That was his analysis of why Mark Critz ran as a conservative democrat (pro life, anti-cap & trade, anti-health care reform, etc). The problem, of course, is that it is a district election... it is completely irrelevant if Pennsylvania is an "overwhelmingly Democratic state" (which is debatable anyway given that this was the state that had twice elected Rick Santorum to the Senate). MSNBC reported that the Pennsylvania 12th was the only district in the nation that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. Now why that is would be an interesting question for political scientists to drill down on. Regardless, even if John Murtha had held the seat for many years, it's hard to say a district that had voted for McCain over Obama could be described as overwhelmingly Democratic.
Mr. Luntz continues:
"You're seeing it in Arkansas, you're seeing it here across the country. There's a message from tonight's election; the American people are saying in three words 'Enough Is Enough'"
Okay, so one would think Mr. Luntz means that the voters have had enough of the 'Obama Big Government Agenda'. If that is what he means, then he is completely full of shit. Bill Halter ran to the left of Blanche Lincoln and was supported (and financed) by labor unions and progressive groups (such as MoveOn.org and Progressive Change Campaign Committee). So, in my unpaid opinion, democratic primary voters were voting for Halter precisely because Lincoln was standing in the way of the Obama agenda (her very public stance against the public option in the health reform debate left many progressives upset with her). I mean, if you're a progressive Democrat, check out this Lincoln ad. Does that make you want to vote for her?
If, on the other hand, Mr. Luntz was arguing that the electorate are saying that we are against those politicians catering to special interests (like Blanche Lincoln and the entire Republican party (Rand Paul trounced the candidate supported by the Republican establishment in KY)), then I won't disagree.
The run-off election in Arkansas will be June 8th. Donate to Bill Halter!
And I can't wait for 2012... Joe Lieberman is going down! (and it won't be because he's an incumbent... it's because he is a douchebag).
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